will canadian whiskey go up in price?

Will Canadian Whiskey Go Up In Price
Many of us worry about Canadian whisky’s future pricing. Expensive whiskey in Canada might become standard practice instead of an exception. Canadian whisky and American whiskey make up two-thirds of all whisky volume sold in Canadian bars and restaurants. Any price changes will substantially affect consumers and the industry.
The Canadian whiskey market faces several challenges already. Sales have dropped by 3.5% in the last year – double the decline of American Bourbon at 1.4%. Canadian whisky owns 34% of total whisky sales volume compared to American whiskey’s 33%. The dollar share tells a different story with American whiskey at 32% versus Canadian whisky’s 29%. The proposed 25% US tariffs, set to take effect on March 4, 2025, arrive at a critical moment for the industry. Market experts believe these tariffs could push prices up by approximately 10%. This increase might make Canadian whisky some of Canada’s most expensive alcohol.
The timing couldn’t be worse for the industry. The US wine and spirits market volume has already decreased by 5.5% before tariff implementation. In spite of that, some positive signs emerge. A third of Canadian consumers now value Canadian-made drinks more than they did last year. This growing national loyalty could ease some market pressures. The question remains: will premium Canadian whiskey become one of Canada’s most expensive whiskeys because of these trade tensions?
US Tariffs Trigger Price Uncertainty for Canadian Whisky

Image Source: Beverage Daily
The US-Canada trade tensions have dealt a severe blow to the Canadian whisky industry. On March 4, 2025, US President Donald Trump slapped 25% tariffs on Canadian exports, including spirits. This bold move could make Canadian whisky much costlier for American consumers.
What the 25% tariff means for Canadian exports
These tariffs threaten Canadian whisky’s position in its biggest market. Domestic importing companies, not the exporting country, pay these tariffs. A bottle of Crown Royal crossing the border at CAD 20.90 wholesale would cost distributors an extra CAD 5.23. Prices could rise by about 10%, making Canadian whisky one of the pricier options on shelves. The US market represents 79% of Canadian whisky exports, so these problems are systemic. American imports of Canadian spirits reached CAD 866.67 million in 2024.
How trade tensions between US and Canada escalated
Trump’s executive orders imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, citing illegal migration and drug concerns. Canada hit back with matching 25% tariffs on USD 41.80 billion worth of American goods, including whiskey, beer, wine, and bourbon. Provincial governments have added fuel to the fire. Ontario Premier Doug Ford kicked off by removing American whiskies from LCBO stores. Quebec joined the boycott, and British Columbia, Manitoba, and Nova Scotia might follow their lead. The Ontario LCBO’s billion-dollar American product purchases make these boycotts potentially more damaging than the tariffs.
Which Canadian whisky brands are most exposed
Diageo stands to lose the most since Crown Royal leads US market sales. The company imports directly and must pay these tariffs. Financial experts predict Diageo could lose up to CAD 836.02 million yearly if consumers switch to cheaper alternatives – that’s 3% of their group sales. Premium and super-premium brands will feel the most pain. Some Canadian whiskies might become the priciest alcohol options in Canada. US whiskey makers could gain a competitive edge in their home market, putting extra pressure on Canadian brands.
Producers Brace for Supply Chain and Cost Pressures
Supply chain disruptions and rising costs create a perfect storm for Canadian whisky producers after the US tariff announcement. Profit margins have dropped from 11.2% in 2017 to 7.9% in 2022. Distilleries now face new pressures that could reshape their industry’s future.
Why importers may pass costs to consumers
Alcohol importers face a tough choice: they must either absorb the tariff costs or pass them to consumers. Ralph De La Rosa, president of Miami-based Imperial Freight Brokers puts it simply: “There really aren’t too many mitigation strategies”.
Most analysts expect major price hikes, with brands like Diageo’s Crown Royal likely to go up by about 10%. This hits hard at a time when consumers cut back on spending. The combined wine and spirits marketplace has dropped 5.5% in volume, showing consumers might be very sensitive to price changes.
Canadian whisky producers deal with these cost pressures while facing other challenges. Provincial alcoholic beverage retail price floors have squeezed profit margins in recent years. Canadian whisky risks being seen as expensive alcohol in Canada.
How distilleries are responding to potential losses
Canadian distillers try several strategies to survive this storm. Many look for quicker production methods and better cost management. They need to keep prices reasonable without cutting quality to stay competitive.
Small distilleries risk the most. Industry experts say about 10% of Canadian distilleries might fail soon. Those without resources to store barrels have limited growth ahead, while debt-heavy operations struggle to survive.
Distilleries that built strong community and brand loyalty now see their customers standing by them. Spirits Canada president Cal Bricker stressed teamwork, stating “Spirits Canada remains committed to working collaboratively with the government to guide this challenging situation”.
What freight and logistics experts are warning
Transportation problems make production issues worse. Logistics experts point to three main factors disrupting the alcohol supply chain:
- Production constraints – These include bad weather, worker shortages, and lack of packaging materials
- Transportation bottlenecks – Not enough containers worldwide and crowded ports
- Materials sourcing difficulties – This hits hard when buying glass bottles, as many distillers depend on Chinese manufacturers who face separate 10% tariffs
The impact shows already. Nova Scotia’s liquor stores run low on certain products, though Saskatchewan keeps 96% of its top 500 products available. These supply chain issues could drive prices even higher, making Canadian whisky some of the most expensive alcohol in Canada.
Canadian Whisky Faces Competitive Pressure in Global Markets
Canadian whisky now competes for global shelf space against strong international rivals, beyond its US market challenges. The North American spirits sector faces unprecedented disruption as consumer priorities change toward other premium spirits.
Will Scotch and Tequila fill the premium gap?
The weakness of Canadian whisky in premium price tiers creates an opportunity for rival spirits to capture market share. Scotch whisky, Irish whiskey, and tequila—all with legally protected designations of origin—are ready to fill any gap that Canadian whisky price increases might create.
Canadian whisky’s sales volume in bars and restaurants has shrunk at more than double (-3.6%) compared to American whiskey (-1.4%) in the last year. Tequila stands as the only spirits category showing growth in Canada. This suggests tequila might capture more market share if Canadian whisky prices go up.
Industry executive Jeff Branson notes that “Bourbon has started to expand in Canada”. Irish whiskey has gained ground too, with “80% Jameson” dominating store sections. Premium labels like Writers’ Tears, Green Spot, and Redbreast help drive category growth.
How US retaliatory tariffs could hurt Canadian distillers abroad
Retaliatory measures have already disrupted American distillers’ export plans. Victor Yarbrough, CEO of Brough Brothers Distillery, lost his Canadian distribution deal after his “Canadian partner axed the deal as a result of an instruction not to stock U.S. spirits”.
Canadian whisky distillers face similar risks in reverse. Cedar Ridge Distillery’s CEO Jeff Quint warns that retaliatory tariffs could “prompt supply gluts and drive price wars as local producers struggle to sell all their stock domestically”.
Some opportunities exist outside North America. Canadian whisky exports to Asia grew by 8.5% in 2020 to CAD 253.59 million, while European exports rose 6.2% to CAD 374.81 million. Trade agreements with Japan and the European Union have reduced barriers for Canadian whisky. This might offer an escape from North America’s turbulent market.
Analysts Predict Long-Term Shifts in Pricing and Demand

Image Source: Market Data Forecast
Market experts are looking at the long-term effects on Canada’s booming whisky sector through financial forecasts. Both investors and consumers wonder about value and affordability as trade tensions grow stronger.
Could Canadian whisky become one of the most expensive alcohols in Canada?
Current data shows alcohol prices in Canada are about twice as high as those in the United States. Federal and Provincial Governments set minimum prices and taxes under ‘social responsibility’ rules. The spirits market has seen major growth as customers move toward premium products. The Canadian whisky market stands at USD 2.33 Billion in 2024 and shows strength despite price pressures. Experts caution that new tariffs could push retail prices up by 10%. This increase might make Canadian whisky one of the priciest alcohols in Canada, even more expensive than some premium imported spirits.
What pricing models suggest about future costs
The market keeps growing despite pricing hurdles. Numbers show an expected growth rate of 3.93% between 2025 and 2034, reaching USD 3.43 Billion by 2034. Revenue forecasts for whisky in Canada point to CAD 3.48 billion for 2025. People will likely drink 51.0 million liters in 2025, about 1.10 liters per person. Canadians will keep buying whisky even with higher prices, but they might buy less often or in smaller amounts.
How premiumization trends may reshape the market
The rise of premium spirits continues to transform the market. Canadian consumers show more interest in craft spirits and sophisticated products. Industry watchers say that “premiumization is not vanishing – it’s simply maturing”. Whisky lovers still want quality but have become more selective. Brands can’t just rely on high prices or limited editions to justify premium status. Successful distillers must now focus on clear production methods and real brand stories to keep their premium position as prices rise.
Conclusion
The Future of Canadian Whisky: Guiding Through Uncertain Waters
Canadian whisky stands at a crucial turning point. Our analysis reveals multiple challenges this iconic industry faces. The 25% US tariffs coming in March 2025 pose an immediate threat. These could push prices up by about 10%, making Canadian whisky one of the costliest alcohol options for consumers.
Supply chain disruptions make the tariff situation worse. Profit margins have shrunk from 11.2% in 2017 to 7.9% in 2022. Distilleries must now choose between absorbing costs or passing them to cost-conscious consumers. Small producers face the greatest risk, and experts believe all but one of these distilleries might fail.
Canadian whisky producers have shown remarkable toughness. A growing love for Canadian-made products could help balance market pressures. One-third of Canadian consumers now prefer domestic brands compared to last year. This national pride offers a great way to get support as the industry directs itself through these tough economic times.
Markets beyond North America show promise. Exports to Asia and Europe have grown by 8.5% and 6.2% respectively. These alternative markets could help alleviate US tariff effects. Trade deals with Japan and the European Union have also reduced barriers for Canadian whisky abroad.
The market brings more hurdles. Spirits with protected origin names – Scotch, Irish whiskey, and tequila – are ready to take market share if Canadian whisky prices rise substantially. Canadian whisky sales have dropped at twice the rate of American whiskey in the last year. This shows how vulnerable the category is.
Yet analysts see growth ahead. They predict the Canadian whisky market will expand at a CAGR of 3.93% between 2025 and 2034, reaching USD 3.43 billion. Canadian consumers will keep buying whisky despite higher prices, though maybe less often or in smaller amounts.
Success ended up depending on how well the industry adapts. Distillers who focus on clear production methods and authentic stories are better placed to keep their premium market positions during uncertain pricing. While premium trends continue to alter the market map, consumers have become more careful about value.
Canadian whisky’s heritage and quality craftsmanship provide strong foundations to weather this perfect storm of tariffs, supply issues, and competition. The big question is how much prices will rise. But whatever happens, this iconic spirit category looks set to evolve rather than vanish. The road ahead has its challenges. Yet the resilience Canadian whisky producers have shown throughout history suggests they’ll find ways to keep their traditions and market presence alive, even if prices go up.
FAQs
Q1. How will the US tariffs affect Canadian whisky prices? The 25% US tariffs scheduled for March 2025 are expected to increase Canadian whisky prices by approximately 10%, potentially making it one of the more expensive alcohol options for consumers.
Q2. Are Canadian whisky sales currently declining? Yes, Canadian whisky sales have declined by 3.5% in the past year, which is more than double the decline rate of American Bourbon at 1.4%.
Q3. How are Canadian distilleries responding to potential losses? Canadian distilleries are exploring more efficient production methods, focusing on cost management, and building brand loyalty to maintain competitiveness in the face of rising costs and potential losses.
Q4. Will other spirits benefit from Canadian whisky’s price increase? Spirits like Scotch whisky, Irish whiskey, and tequila may capture market share if Canadian whisky prices rise significantly, as they already have protected designations of origin and growing popularity.
Q5. Is the Canadian whisky market expected to grow despite these challenges? Yes, despite pricing challenges, the Canadian whisky market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.93% between 2025 and 2034, reaching a value of USD 3.43 Billion by 2034.